SwanGuard Get’s an Upgrade — Here’s the Details

Like an automotive airbag, the added safety in a real crash can be priceless. But, a nuisance trigger can be both costly and annoying. Our objective for this SwanGuard upgrade was two-fold: (1) substantially reduce the odds of head-fake nuisance triggers, and (2) in the event of a nuisance trigger, cancel SwanGuard as promptly as possible. We addressed each of these as described below:

1.) We noted that all of the former SwanGuard events occurred within days just before the StormGuard Indicator went negative. However, for the August 2024 event, the StormGuard Indicator was relatively high and was increasing. Thus, there was no ominous problem with the market. It was a short-term news-driven knee-jerk. Thus, the new SwanGuard triggering test further requires StormGuard to be on a trajectory to cross into negative territory within two or three days (and does not wait for month-end).

2.) We further noted that as soon as the BOJ softened its stance, the VIX volatility indicator quickly dropped below 20 and an aggressive rebound ensued. The offending problem had already evaporated. During prior valid SwanGuard events volatility remained quite high for many months. Thus, an early SwanGuard cancellation test was added that requires both a strong short-term market reversal and a swift return to low volatility.

SwanGuard Off: If you favor simply riding through sharp market moves versus attempting to react and avoid some of their losses, then follow these special instructions to fully disable SwanGuard for any particular Strategy:  (1) add the tilde character “~” to the end of the Strategy’s name, and (2) check and then uncheck the “New Feature Display” option in the Strategy Information popup (click the  icon to access), and then click the Save button.  

SwanGuard Old: The Old original version of SwanGuard reacts the fastest to Black Swan events, but could occasionally be fooled by a head-fake news event such as in August 2024. Immediately following the deployment of this update, your Strategies will still continue displaying the same SwanGuard results UNTIL you edit them in some way. To maintain use/display of the original SwanGuard design, be sure to un-check the “New Feature Display” option in the Strategy Information popup (click the  icon to access), and then click the Save button. Note, however, that future Black Swan events will be handled with the New version of SwanGuard.

SwanGuard New: The New improved version of SwanGuard reacts a little slower to Black Swan events to help avoid being fooled by a head-fake news event such as in August 2024. Immediately following the deployment of this update, your Strategies will still continue displaying the same SwanGuard results UNTIL you edit them in some way. To switch to the New SwanGuard design, be sure to check the “New Feature Display” option in the Strategy Information popup (click the  icon to access), and then click the Save button. (Note: if it was checked prior to the update, to get synced you may first need to un-check and save it, and then re-check  and save it.)