Posts by Paul Fennell

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did well last week to impersonate the Grinch who stole Christmas when he canceled two of the planned interest rate cuts for 2025 and reminded us he would hold rates higher for longer.

The brief August 2024 Black Swan event was triggered by Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate policy changes that led to a rapid unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a steep market selloff.

August’s brief Black Swan event was triggered by Bank of Japan interest rate policy changes that led to a rapid unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a steep market selloff.

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ background_color=”RGBA(255,255,255,0)” custom_padding=”|0px||0px|false|true” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row column_structure=”2_3,1_3″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” width=”100%” max_width=”100%” custom_css_main_element=”width: 100% !important;” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”2_3″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” header_3_font=”|600|||||||” header_3_text_color=”gcid-secondary-color” global_colors_info=”{%22gcid-secondary-color%22:%91%22header_3_text_color%22%93}”] Considering the Fading Black Swan The recent Black Swan market event was triggered when a 5% market decline in late July was followed by a further sharp 5% decline in…

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ background_color=”RGBA(255,255,255,0)” custom_padding=”|0px||0px|false|true” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” width=”100%” max_width=”100%” custom_css_main_element=”width: 100% !important;” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.25.2″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.0″ _module_preset=”default” header_3_font=”|600|||||||” header_3_text_color=”gcid-secondary-color” global_colors_info=”{%22gcid-secondary-color%22:%91%22header_3_text_color%22%93}”] A Black Swan Event Has Occurred We designed our SwanGuard indicator to quickly detect and react to extraordinary market events with the character of (1) Black Monday of 1987, (2) the…

The old “Sell in May and Go Away” strategy would have cost you roughly 11% if you had sold the S&P500 on May 1st. Market volatility has been low and the trend has been our friend.

Okay, okay – we’ll start with the exciting stuff and discuss the tiresome, overdue recession later. If you have been paying attention to the financial media, it’s all abuzz about the SEC approval Wednesday of 11 ETFs for Bitcoin, enabling investors to own cryptocurrencies without taking the extra steps involved in buying actual Bitcoin.

Starting Monday, April 29th, AlphaDroid’s offerings will be live in the Nitrogen Wealth Partner Store. In addition to offering Advanced Momentum and Risk Mitigation Tools, AlphaDroid has posted 25 awesome SMA Models that may be imported into client portfolios for experimentation or presentation purposes.

Market bubbles clearly come in many shapes and sizes. Some of the largest bubbles have included the Dutch Tulip Bubble, South Sea Bubble, Nifty Fifty Bubble, Biotech Bubble, Dot Com Bubble, US Housing Bubble, Bitcoin Bubble, and now perhaps an AI Bubble.

Market bubbles are both euphoric as they form and dangerous when they pop. While FOMO, the “Fear of Missing Out,” drives investors to push markets higher with irrational exuberance, eventually “Buy the Dip” no longer works, and momentum flips to the downside.